You gotta know when to fold ‘em
By: Basil Nestor Texas Hold ‘Em Tournament – No Limit
Blinds are $600-$1,200 – Antes are $200 – Nine players are seated
Seat 1, George (Under the Gun) – Chip Count: $115,000
Seat 3, John – Chip Count: $43,300
Seat 7, Neil (Button) – Chip Count: $54,500 PRE-FLOP
George (T T ): “This is a good starting hand, but high cards on the flop could hurt me. I’m going to raise here, representing a big hand. I’d be happy to pick up the blinds and antes without a fight, but if someone calls or reraises I’ll be in reasonably good shape.” RAISE to $6,000 Seats 2: FOLD John (AK): “I have A-K, so I need a good flop or I’ll be sucking wind. This is not a hand for me to reraise right now, especially since George has an enormous stack. He’s a solid player, and he’s under the gun, so I think he raised with good cards. But George sometimes limps in with pocket aces, especially if he’s afraid of getting no action from a raise. So I don’t think he has aces in this situation. Either way, there are still people behind me who may cause trouble. My hand is good, but I need to play it carefully. I will call here and see what happens.”
CALL to $6,000 Seats 4, 5 and 6: FOLD Neil (AQ): “This is an easy call. My hand is suited with an ace and another high card. It could be a worth a lot, or it could be trash. The flop will tell.”
CALL to $6,000 Seats 8 and 9 (small blind and big blind): FOLD Pot = $21,600 FLOP: A 7 J George (TT): “Not good. I still have just a pair of tens. Two players called my raise before the flop, and they probably weren’t calling with trash. The flop probably hit someone. I’ll bet big here and represent a good hand, but if someone calls, then I’ll be worried. And if someone raises, then I’ll be done with this pair of tens.”
BET $15,000 John (AK): “Hmmm… I have a pair of aces. If George has pocket aces, pocket jacks, pocket sevens, or A-J, then I’m in bad shape. But he may have pocket kings, a lower pair, A-K or something worse. His raise pre-flop and his bet here were a little too strong, a little too aggressive. I think he’s trying to mask a weakness. Also, I have Neil to consider. I want him out of this hand if possible. If I just call, Neil may call or he may raise; but if I go all in, I may push Neil off a drawing hand. It’s possible that I could pick up the pot right here. Or I could be
out of the tournament. This is what big-bet poker is all about. Let’s do it, baby!”
BET ALL IN $37,100 Neil (AQ): “This is a tough one. I have top pair with the possibility of a backdoor flush. Is John raising with a legitimate hand, or is he running a bluff? Does he have an ace with a smaller kicker than me? Does he have A-K? What could he have called with before the flop? Was it pocket jacks, pocket sevens? And what about George? Perhaps George has pocket aces. But I’ve got top pair! Maybe I have the best hand. I just can’t lay these cards down. I won’t.”
CALL to $37,100 George (TT): “That’s it for me. Somebody out there has an ace at least, and maybe even a better hand.”
FOLD [John and Neil reveal their hands.] John (AK): “Yessssssss! I’m totally the favorite!” Neil (AQ): “Oh no. I’m going to lose this hand unless a queen comes or I get two diamonds.” Pot = $110,800 Turn: 4
Board: A 7J4 John (AK): “I’m still leading, but another diamond will kill me.” Neil (AQ): “Diamond, yes! Please, please, another diamond! Please! Or a queen, please!” Pot = $110,800 River: 2
Board: A7J42 John (AK):“I win! I more than double up! I win! Well played, Johnny boy!” Neil (AQ): “I’ve been pounded. I just vaporized 4/5 of my stack. Why did I do that? SHOWDOWN: $110,800 pot goes to John. He wins with a pair of aces and a king kicker. George: “I lost this hand, but I played it well. I’m satisfied with my performance. But what’s up with Neil? John totally outplayed him. John: “Yay! I correctly read George’s weakness. And Neil… he simply misplayed his hand. I’m going to remember this vulnerability and pound him with it at some later time.” Neil: “I’m being too hard on myself. This was just bad luck. Hopefully, my A-Q will fare better next time.” Analysis:
Neil played a hand that simply was outclassed. A raise and a call from early positions means that you can reasonably expect one or both hands will be legitimate. In these situations, A-Q, A-J, and A-T (suited or unsuited) should be played carefully, or not at all. Neil’s pre-flop call was probably correct, though some good players have the ability to fold in these circumstances when they can read their opponents. Neil’s big mistake was on the flop. He called a bet and a big raise. If it had been a limit game, he might have been correct to call all the way to the river. But this is a no-limit tournament. You cannot call every possible bluff. To survive you must occasionally fold good-but-not-great hands. Essentially, Neil ‘fell in love’ with his cards; he only could see how good A-Q was, and he saw none of the flaws. George’s bet on the flop was aggressive; some would say reckless. But frankly, that’s the way you take control of a hand. Aggression either wins you the pot, or it reveals the strength of your opponents, allowing you to fold with no regrets. Of course, you’ve got to use this tactic selectively. If you’re always aggressive, people will assume that you’re bluffing, and they’ll call you down with almost anything. Basil Nestor is author of The Smarter Bet Guide to Poker, The Unofficial Guide to Casino Gambling, and other comprehensive gambling guides. Got a question? Visit SmarterBet.com and drop him a line. (c) Copyright 2004 Basil Nestor (© 2005 BluffMagazine. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed) |
Industry News
